Population Projections 2016- 2041

How are we changing?

The National Records of Scotland (NRS) publishes population projections for each local authority and health board area every two years. The most recently available set is from the year 2016 to the year 2041.

The population of North Lanarkshire is expected to increase by around 233 people in the projection period between 2016-2041, however within this projection period there will be population growth until 2028, when the population will peak at 342,919 and then gradually fall to 2041.

Projected population 2016- 2041 North Lanarkshire and Scotland

 2016202120262041Change 
Male164,242165,762,166,181164,773+0.3%
Female175,148176,222176,630174,850-0.2%
Total339,390341,984342,811339,6230.1%

The population growth and decline will be different across different age groups in the population. 

The table below shows how each client group is expected to change over the projection period.

Population change by client group 2016-2041

Client Group2016202120262041Change 2016- 2041
     No.
Children (0-15)63,29962,61960,46657,354-5,945-9%
Pre-School (0-4)19,03118,21118,16317,502-1,529-8%
Primary School (5-11)28,69627,75526,20125,079-3,617-13%
Secondary School (12-15)15,57216,65316,10214,773-799-5%
Working Age (16-64)219,594218,072214,568197,107-22,487-10%
Youths (16-17)8,0948,0808,3597,448-646-8%
18-2929,19027,27427,00225,164-4,026-14%
30-4486,65086,16485,43578,376-8,274-10%
45-6595,66096,55493,77286,119-9,541-10%
Pensionable (65+)56,49761,29367,77785,16228,66551%
Pensionable (65-74)32,56435,15937,73241,4428,87827%
Elderly (75+)23,93326,13430,04543,72019,78783%
TOTAL339,390341,984342,811339,6232330.1%

 Source: National Records of Scotland 2016

Care should be taken in interpreting the projections. The projections are largely based on a continuation of past trends. It should be noted that projections will only be realised if past population trends continue and that the assumptions which have been adopted are the most relevant.

This pdf icon report [535kb] details the expected changes in North Lanarkshire's population from 2016 to 2041.

For further information and more detailed tables, contact the Business Solutions team.


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